State bragging rights on line, as Spartans visit Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/10/2009 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - State and Big Ten rivals will collide in Ann Arbor tonight as the Michigan Wolverines attempt to upset the ninth-ranked Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State owns a stellar 19-4 record this season, including an impressive 9-2 mark in Big Ten play. The club is fresh off a 75-47 thrashing of Indiana on Saturday, and four of the last five outings have resulted in victory. There are plenty of reasons for optimism heading into this evening's tilt for Michigan State, including the fact that it has won all six of its true road games this season.

As for Michigan, its 15-9 overall record is clearly more impressive than the 5-6 league mark that the team has compiled thus far. The Wolverines actually got off to a promising start in conference, but three of the last four outings and six of eight have ended in defeat. On Saturday, they took a break from Big Ten action to take on top-ranked UConn, and the result was a 69-61 loss on the road. Clearly, Michigan was competitive in the setback, so that loss may actually spark some confidence.

Tonight's game marks the only scheduled meeting of the season between these rivals, and the Wolverines hold a 91-71 series lead over the Spartans.

Michigan State has been forced to play without standout Raymar Morgan because of pneumonia, and it is unclear when he will be back in the lineup. Morgan is averaging 12.3 ppg to place second on the squad, and he is grabbing 6.0 rpg as well. Kalin Lucas is the leader for the Spartans with 14.8 ppg, and he has dished out 112 assists against only 40 turnovers. As for Goran Suton, who is the club's third and final double-digit scorer, he provides 10.1 ppg and 8.0 rpg. Michigan State is posting 75.5 ppg through 23 outings while limiting foes to 64.4 ppg. The Spartans were outstanding at the defensive end against Indiana on Saturday, as they held the young and inexperienced Hoosiers to 31 percent overall shooting while forcing 21 turnovers. Chris Allen scored 16 points off the bench for Michigan State, while Draymond Green added 15 points and 12 boards. Suton (12 points) and Lucas (10 points) added balance.

Michigan is only scoring 68.2 ppg this season on 42.1 percent shooting from the field. Fortunately, the club has been able to limit its opponents to 63.4 ppg, and strong defense is a major reason the club has been able to win 15 games. Manny Harris is the leading scorer for Michigan this season, as he is racking up 17.5 ppg to go along with other team highs of 106 assists and 31 steals. The only other double-digit scorer on the roster is DeShawn Sims, as he is netting 14.8 ppg while grabbing 7.5 rpg. Considering the fact that Michigan shot just 38.6 percent from the field against UConn on Saturday and was outscored by 11 points from the foul line, it is hard to believe that the Wolverines were even able to stay close. They were outrebounded by a 47-24 margin but forced 17 turnovers while committing just 10 of their own. Stu Douglass had 20 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three-point range to pace Michigan in defeat.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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