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09/15/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Christine Sinclair scored two goals to lead Canada to a comfortable 4-0 win over Ghana in Group C action on Saturday.
Sophie Schmidt and Martina Franko also found the net for the Canadians, who control their own destiny heading into the final group stage match against Australia on Wednesday.
Ghana, meanwhile, has lost its first two games by a combined score of 8-1, and is all but eliminated before the knockout round for the third consecutive World Cup.
After struggling offensively against Australia in its opener, Ghana got off to a better start against the Canadians, earning two free kicks in the opening 10 minutes from dangerous spots. Although both shots failed to hit the target, it was a sign from Ghana that it was ready to play.
Canada started slow, but picked up the pace 13 minutes into the contest. The first opportunity was created by Sinclair, who was played down the left flank and crossed a ball to the top of the six-yard box for Katie Thorlakson. The striker got her head to the ball but she turned it over the net.
Three minutes later, Sinclair was on the receiving end of a cross from Kara Lang and she did not fail with her finish. Lang lobbed the cross from the right to the back post. It started to drift over the head of Sinclair, but she faded back and got her head to the ball, knocking it over the keeper and across the goal line.
Ghana came to life right before the break and had two good chances to pull even. A left-footed shot from just outside the box by Memuna Darku whistled just over the crossbar.
Moments later Anita Amankwa should have put away Ghana's opening goal but was denied by the crossbar. Some nice work on the right allowed Rumanatu Tahiru to beat her defender and carry the ball into the box. She fired a shot toward goal that was redirected on target by Amankwa from a few yards out. However, with an open net staring her in the face, Amankwa's shot slammed off the crossbar.
Ghana keeper Memunatu Sulemana was called into action early in the second half when Sinclair put a header on target from close range, forcing a nice reaction stop by the keeper.
The Black Queens continued to look for the equalizer and Gloria Foriwa put a diving header on goal that was stopped comfortably by the keeper.
However, the Ghana defense once again allowed space for the Canadian attack, giving Lang room to fire a shot from the top left corner of the box. The keeper did well to tip the shot over the net, but Canada doubled its lead on the ensuing corner kick.
Kristina Kiss swung the cross into the area and Sinclair got her head to the ball, sending it on goal. The ball was headed off the line by a Ghana defender, but it went right to Schmidt, who put a shot on target with her head. Ghana's Hamdya Abass was positioned on the goal line and tried to clear the ball with her head, but it hit the bottom of the crossbar and settled into the back of the net.
Sinclair then put the result out of reach in the 62nd minute after some good work by Lang. Jodi-Ann Robinson slid a pass into the box behind the defense, forcing Sulemana to come off her line. Lang beat the keeper to the ball and touched it toward the end line. She pulled it back and found Sinclair with a pass, and the Canadian captain knocked home her second goal of the match to make it 3-0.
Another corner kick produced the fourth goal for Canada, with Kiss bending a cross into the six-yard box that was a little too close to the keeper. Sulemana got her hands to the ball but she could not hold it, which allowed Franko to get under the ball and head it into the net from a few yards out.
<< Greene's homer carries Padres over Giants in 10th
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Khalil Greene belted a home run in the
bottom of the 10th inning to lift the San Diego Padres to 5-4 victory over the
San Francisco Giants at Petco Park.
With one out in the 10th, Greene smacked the fi
<< Francoeur's two-run single lifts Braves over Nats in 13th
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Francoeur's two-run single in the 13th
inning led Atlanta to an 8-5 victory over the Washington Nationals.
Chipper Jones, who returned to the lineup after missing three starts due to
a strained
<< Guillen's sac fly lifts Mariners over D-Rays
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Guillen's sacrifice fly in the bottom of
the ninth sent Seattle over Tampa Bay, 2-1, in the second of four between the
teams at Safeco Field.
With Gary Glover (5-5) on the hill, Ichiro Suzuki began
<< Hermida leads Marlins over Rockies
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeremy Hermida homered and drove in three runs
as the Florida Marlins edged the Colorado Rockies, 7-6, in the start of a
three-game series at Coors Field.
Dan Uggla also had two hits and scored a run for
New mom Davenport moves into Bali final >>
Bali, Indonesia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lindsay Davenport continued her remarkable
ride in Bali on Saturday, cruising past Italian Sara Errani, 6-1, 6-3, in
semifinal action at the $225,000 Commonwealth Bank Tennis Classic.
The three-time
Another late rally for Europe keeps it close >>
Halmstad, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th hole doomed the Americans.
Two European teams won the 18th hole to earn crucial halves in the first two
matches of Saturday's foursomes matches at the Solheim Cup.
In the foursomes, each tea
Robredo, Gonzalez advance to China Open final >>
Beijing, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Robredo and Fernando Gonzalez will
meet in Sunday's final after each took care of business in Saturday's
semifinals at the $500,000 China Open.
Robredo nipped German wild card Nicolas K
Samba Queens dance all over China >>
Wuhan, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marta and Christiane each scored two goals as
Brazil rolled to a 4-0 win over China on Saturday, its second impressive win
in the World Cup.
Brazil defeated New Zealand 5-0 in its opener and with the win ov
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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