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09/01/2010 - Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what figures to be a complete mismatch, the eighth-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers entertain the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the season opener for both programs this weekend at Memorial Stadium.
Nebraska begins its 121st season with high expectations after a strong showing in 2009. In their second year under head coach Bo Pelini, the Huskers posted a 10-4 record and were just seconds away from winning a Big 12 Championship before Texas stole a 13-12 victory in the league title game. Now in his third year at Nebraska, Pelini has the program in great shape and ready to compete for another conference title. However, this will be the program's last shot at winning a Big 12 title, as the Huskers announced this offseason their plans to move to the Big Ten in 2011.
As for the Hilltoppers, they are the newest team at the FBS level and it showed in 2009. In their first full-fledged season as a FBS member, WKU went winless at 0-12, and the program brings the nation's longest losing streak into 2010 with 20 straight setbacks. Obviously a change was needed, as Willie Taggart, a former standout quarterback at WKU, was brought in to turn the program around. Taggart, who recently spent time as Stanford's running backs coach, brings a winning attitude and a fresh start for the Toppers.
"I have always followed Western Kentucky University, ever since I was in school here," said Taggart. "When I saw this opportunity, I knew this was the opportunity of a lifetime."
This game marks the first-ever clash between WKU and Nebraska on the gridiron.
The Toppers previously ran a spread-option attack, but under Taggart, they are now set to use a West Coast style of offense. The change is drastic and it should help improve the unit in the long run. Kawaun Jakes was recently named the starting quarterback by Taggart, as the sophomore beat out junior Matt Pelesasa in the offseason.
"Kawaun did the things we were looking for to be the starting quarterback. He was consistent, made plays and became a leader," stated Taggart.
In 11 appearances, eight starts last season, Jakes threw for 1,515 yards and nine scores, while adding 366 yards and five more touchdowns on the ground. The Toppers, though, have a relatively inexperienced group of wideouts and are in need of someone to step up as the top option.
The team however, is settled at running back with the return of Bobby Rainey, who rushed for 939 yard and six touchdowns as a sophomore last season. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry and is clearly the best playmaker on this club.
WKU is also switching schemes on the defensive side of the ball, going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 under first-year coordinator Clint Bowen. A change is certainly needed considering the Toppers ranked 118th nationally in total defense (478.3 ypg) and 119th in scoring (39.6 ppg) in 2009.
The line is anchored by end Jared Clendenin, who had 40 tackles in 2009. He will look to become a better pass rusher for a defense that registered only 10 sacks in '09.
The most experienced part of the defense is the linebacking corps, and Thomas Majors leads the way. Majors paced WKU with 101 stops last season and he will be joined by Chris Bullard and converted safety Orlando Missalefua, who combined for 91 stops a year ago.
The biggest area of concern is the secondary, where WKU brought in many new faces to compete for playing time. Safety Mark Santoro is the most recognizable returnee after ranking second on the team with 91 tackles last season.
If the Huskers are going to build off last year's run, they will need more from an offense that managed only 25.1 ppg and 322.8 total ypg in '09. With that said, Nebraska has yet to announce a starting quarterback, though Pelini doesn't seem to think that is a big deal.
"The team is going to rally around whoever is out there. They've been practicing with all three guys and all three guys have gotten reps with the first unit. It's kind of like any other position."
The three man race is between returning senior starter Zac Lee, sophomore Cody Green and freshman Taylor Martinez. Lee, coming off elbow surgery, played with the injury most of last season and struggled at times, throwing for 2,143 yards with 14 touchdowns against 10 picks. Green, meanwhile, passed for 317 yards and two touchdowns as the back to Lee and he also added 158 yards and two more scores on the ground. As for Martinez, he caught the eye of everyone with his speed and athleticism in the spring.
An offensive line that returns nearly intact should help whomever ends up under center, as should the continued success of senior tailback Roy Helu Jr., who ran for 1,147 yards and 10 touchdowns despite being slowed by a shoulder injury last season. Niles Paul also returns as the team's top target after leading the way with 40 receptions and 796 receiving yards in '09.
Nebraska's defense was the cornerstone of the '09 team, as the unit surrendered a mere 10.4 ppg to lead the nation. Replacing the nation's top defensive lineman in Ndamukong Suh, however, will be no easy task and the Huskers need to prove then can be successful without him.
"I think we have the potential to be really good on defense, but we're not right now," stated Pelini. I think we're getting better. I think we're better in some areas, I think there are other areas we need to work on."
While Suh may be gone, the line does still have a star performer in tackle Jared Crick, who tallied 73 stops, 15 TFLs and 9.5 sacks last year. Crick has All-American potential, but must prove he can be successful without Suh garnering most of the attention.
The linebacking corps isn't as stacked as other positions, and sophomore Will Compton will be counted on to emerge into more of a threat after registering 40 stops in '09.
The Huskers' secondary is deep and versatile and should benefit from the new Peso defense, which uses a hybrid linebacker/safety position. Filling that spot is senior Eric Hagg, who is a key performer that posted 40 stops and seven TFLs last season.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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