College Football Bowl Season Hits Full Stride

NCAA Football Betting Lines

12/26/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I'll begin with Thursdays Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana. Oklahoma State and Alabama hook up in a game where tempo will decide the outcome. The Cowboys like to run it up, averaging 35.3 points per game on the season, while the Crimson Tide rely on a defense that allowed 18 ppg.

Oklahoma State is led by wide receiver Adarius Bowman, who caught 57 passes for 1,131 yards and 11 touchdowns. In the 42-32 win over Kansas, the former Tar Heel had a career day, catching 13 balls for 300 yards and four TDs. Quarterback Bobby Reid broke head coach Mile Gundys school record of 434 yards of total offense with 457 in that game, and he and Bowman will try to scorch Alabamas secondary.

Therein lies the problem for Oklahoma State. The Tide finished 16th in the country in pass defense, giving up 170 yards per game through the air. The team ended the season losing its last three games and four straight SEC match-ups. Offense was the problem, as Bama averaged only 16.6 ppg in conference play. Oklahoma State, however, does not play in the SEC.

The Cowboys also don't play much defense, as they allowed 30.4 points per game in Big 12 action. Alabama played high-flying Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl last season, and the Tide held the Red Raiders to 10 points. Its true that Bamas defense was utterly amazing last year, but its also true that this years Oklahoma State team is nowhere near the quality of last seasons 9-3 Texas Tech squad.

The Cowboys are 1-3 SU/ATS in their last four bowl games. Alabama is 2-2 SU in its last four bowls, and all have been decided by four points or less, including two by one point. The Crimson Tide have played only five games on artificial turf since 2001 and are 0-5 ATS. However, they won three of those five, including a game over another Big 12 club, Iowa State, in this very same Independence Bowl.

Take Alabama plus the points and the under.

Clemson and Kentucky hook up in the first game on Friday at the Music City Bowl in Nashville. The Tigers were ranked 10th by the AP after week eight, but fell flat on their face, losing three of their last four games. One thing was primarily responsible for their great start: Weak competition. Clemson appeared to be dominant, but scoring 50+ points against Florida Atlantic, North Carolina, L-Tech and Temple does not prove anything.

In the Tigers' last four games, they scored 67 points for an average of 16.8 ppg, after having averaged 42.3 per game in their first eight contests. In the last contest vs. South Carolina, their defense let them down, giving up 492 total yards and 31 points in the three-point loss.

Kentucky has gone the opposite route, winning four of its last five games. The Wildcats also gave Tennessee all it could handle in the one loss, a 17-12 defeat in Knoxville. The Cats outgained the Vols, 410-336, and had a chance to win late but couldn't get into the end zone from Tennessees five-yard line.

Clemson will be without starting cornerback Duane Coleman, as the senior was suspended after getting arrested for possession of marijuana. That doesn't bode well for the Tigers, as the Wildcats finished the regular season ninth in the country in passing yards per game. The line in this game is way too high.

Go with Kentucky plus the points.

Oregon State takes on Missouri in the Sun Bowl down in Texas. The Beavers won seven of their last eight games, including a huge score over USC, plus road wins at Arizona and Hawaii. Their defensive stats are a bit skewed since they play in the Pac 10, but overall, OSU was much improved from last year.

The Beavers allowed 21 points per game, 12 less than in 05. They gave up 299 yards passing per contest last year, but allowed only 213 per game this season. That will come in handy vs. Missouris Chase Daniel, who completed 64% of his passes for 266 yards per game and 26 TDs.

Oregon State needs a big effort from 1,000-yard RB Yvenson Bernard since Mizzou might be able to shut down Matt Moore and the passing game. The Tigers led the Big 12 in pass defense, allowing 172 yards per game. However, the Big 12 is not known as a passing conference, as only two other teams besides the Tigers threw more than 32 times per game.

The Beavers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four bowl games, while Missouri is 1-1 SU and ATS since 2003. Nonetheless, the Tigers have covered just one of their last five postseason games.

This will be a fun game to watch, but Oregon State will prevail by a touchdown.

Time to make our way back to Tennessee for the Liberty Bowl, where South Carolina takes on Houston. The Cougars have not won a bowl since the Garden State Bowl in 1980. From 1981 to 2005, they are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS, and only two of those games were decided by single digits: a two-point loss to Washington State in 1988 and a triple overtime, six-point defeat at the hands of Hawaii in 2003.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is 3-1 both SU and ATS in its last four bowl games. Steve Spurrier leads the Gamecocks into Memphis to face Kevin Kolb and the explosive Houston offensive attack. Kolb has thrown 27 TDs on the year with only three picks and has completed 68% of his passes.

The key question in this game is: Can South Carolina stop the Cougars' passing game? Lets take a look at how the Gamecocks did against the top three passing teams in the SEC. They allowed an average of 22 points, 266 yards and a 65% completion percentage per game vs. Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida. Not the best of numbers.

South Carolina also has played only two games on artificial turf this decade, losing to Ole Miss in 03 and dropping a seven-point decision in last years Independence Bowl to Missouri.

Both teams had great ATS records this season, as the Gamecocks finished 8-3 and Houston ended up 8-4. There isn't much separating the two teams, and when you have an underdog that you think has a decent chance to win the game outright, you have to feel pretty good at getting the points.

Go with Houston to hang close with South Carolina and sneak out with the victory.

Saturday afternoon brings us Navy vs. Boston College in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The Midshipmen need to run the ball well to be effective, and they won't be able to without Adam Ballard, who will miss the game after breaking his leg against Army. In addition, Boston College finished third in the ACC against the run, giving up 90 yards per game on a 3.2 yards per rush average.

Being an option-based team, Navy doesn't perform well vs. the pass, which will play right into the Eagles' hands. They led the conference, throwing for 241 yards peg game. Boston College only lost three games this season by a combined 12 points and will have no trouble with Navy.

One final nugget: The Eagles have not lost a bowl game since 1999 and are 6-0 SU and ATS since.

Take BC by double digits.

Casinos--sportsbooks NCAA Football Betting News


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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.

Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"

A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."

Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.

In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.

"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."

Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.

But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"

Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.

This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.

Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.

In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.

No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.

And that's all any bettor can ask for.

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